<<<<<<< HEAD G10 FX Morning Brief — Monday, 25 May 2026 ======= G10 FX Morning Brief — Monday, 25 May 2026 >>>>>>> 76d9fa60c42f6567e27b062c6b5b6060231a145b
FX Regime Lab
G10 FX Regime Detection Framework
Morning Brief
Monday, 25 May 2026
FX as of: 22 May 2026   |   IN 10Y as of: 15 Apr 2026   |   COT cutoff: 19 May 2026 (pub'd: 22 May 2026)   |   run: 25 May 2026 05:42 IST
WORKSPACE ▶
MACRO CALENDAR ▼ (3 events)
Jun 05
ECB Meeting / RBI MPC
11d
Jun 17
BoJ Policy
23d
Jun 18
Fed FOMC
24d
DXY99.32+0.13%
EUR/USD1.1621-0.04%
USD/JPY159.02+0.08%
USD/INR96.17-0.37%
Brent$103.54+0.94%
Gold$4,521-0.41%
EUR/USD
1.1621 -0.04% 12M +2.36%
Rate Spread (10Y) ↑ 1.43%
-1 NEUTRAL
Lev Money67th %ile67th pct
Vol 30D4.9%NORMAL
Regime Corr+0.378WEAKENING
Oil Corr 60D-0.405MODERATE
DXY Corr 60D-0.001EUR SPECIFIC
View Detail →
USD/JPY
159.02 +0.08% 12M +10.57%
Rate Spread (10Y) ↓ 1.82%
-16 NEUTRAL
Lev Money19th %ile19th pct
Vol 30D7.2%NORMAL
Regime Corr-0.364INVERTED
Oil Corr 60D+0.241LOW
DXY Corr 60D-0.102YEN SPECIFIC
View Detail →
USD/INR
96.17 -0.37% 12M +12.45%
US–IN 10Y ↑ —
+12 NEUTRAL
Vol 30D10.1%EXTREME
Oil Corr 60D+0.100LOW
DXY Corr 60D+0.013INDIA SPECIFIC
Gold Corr 60D-0.258GOLD DIVERGENCE
RBI Reserves+12.2BACTIVE CAPPING
View Detail →
EUR/USD <<<<<<< HEAD 1.1621 -0.04% 12M: +2.36% ======= 1.1591 +0.14% 12M: +5.56% >>>>>>> 76d9fa60c42f6567e27b062c6b5b6060231a145b NEUTRAL
POSITIONING (COT)
Lev Money+16,31767th %ileNEUTRAL LONG
Asset Mgr+270,76725th %ileNEUTRAL LONG
VOLATILITY & CORRELATION
30D Vol4.9%13th %ileNORMAL
60D Corr+0.378WEAKENING
20D Corr+0.162BROKEN
Oil corr 60D-0.405MODERATE
DXY corr 60D-0.001EUR SPECIFIC
RATE DIFFERENTIALS
US-DE 10Y1.43%+0.03pp
US-DE 2Y1.45%+0.05pp
BTP-Bund (IT-DE)0.35ppNORMAL
G10 REGIME COMPOSITE
Composite Score-1NEUTRAL
REGIME READ
spread compression supports EUR strength; positioning neutral — no crowding distortion.
USD/JPY <<<<<<< HEAD 159.02 +0.08% 12M: +10.57% ======= 158.69 +0.07% 12M: +8.81% >>>>>>> 76d9fa60c42f6567e27b062c6b5b6060231a145b CROWDED SHORT
POSITIONING (COT)
Lev Money-64,94519th %ileNEUTRAL SHORT
Asset Mgr-41,88619th %ileNEUTRAL SHORT
VOLATILITY & CORRELATION
30D Vol7.2%23th %ileNORMAL
60D Corr-0.364INVERTED
20D Corr-0.285BROKEN
Oil corr 60D+0.241LOW
Gold corr 60D-0.237WEAK
DXY corr 60D-0.102YEN SPECIFIC
RATE DIFFERENTIALS
US-JP 10Y1.82%-0.08pp
US-JP 2Y2.63%-0.05pp
G10 REGIME COMPOSITE
Composite Score-16NEUTRAL
REGIME READ
spread compression favors lower USD/JPY; Leveraged Money 19th pct and Asset Manager 18th pct both crowded short — dual category confirmation, strongest squeeze signal this framework produces.
USD/INR <<<<<<< HEAD 96.17 -0.37% 12M: +12.45% ======= 92.64 -0.90% 12M: +7.18% >>>>>>> 76d9fa60c42f6567e27b062c6b5b6060231a145b RATE DIFF ONLY
POSITIONING (FPI PROXY)
FPI 20D Flow-4,440 CrBUILDINGOUTFLOW
CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITY
RBI Reserves 1W+12.2BACTIVE CAPPING
VOLATILITY & CORRELATION
30D Vol10.1%96th %ileEXTREME
Oil corr 60D+0.100LOW
Gold corr 60D-0.258GOLD DIVERGENCE
Seasonal windowACTIVEAKSHAYA TRITIYA
DXY corr 60D+0.013INDIA SPECIFIC
RATE DIFFERENTIALS
US–IN 10Y
US-IN Policy0.00pp
INR COMPOSITE
Regime Score+12NEUTRAL
Oil+3
Dollar+0
FPI+6
RBI+4
Rate diff+0
REGIME READ
US-IN spread at —. Rate differential needs monitoring. FPI positioning data pending.
ANALYSIS WORKSPACE — ALL PAIRS